Accelerating Human Immunodeficiency Virus Self-Testing in the United States: A Call to Action.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) self-testing has emerged as a tool to increase the proportion of people to know their status. Since the first HIV self-test was approved in 2012 by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), global access to HIV self-tests has been bolstered by public-private partnerships to ensure equitable access in low- and middle-income countries. However, no company has applied for FDA clearance in a decade. We highlight the potential benefits to reclassifying HIV self-tests from class III to class II.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Vital Signs: HIV Infection, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Prevention Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for two thirds of new HIV infections in the United States in 2019 despite representing approximately 2% of the adult population. METHODS: CDC analyzed surveillance data to determine trends in estimated new HIV infections and to assess measures of undiagnosed infection and HIV prevention and treatment services including HIV testing, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and viral suppression, as well as HIV-related stigma. RESULTS: The estimated number of new HIV infections among MSM was 25,100 in 2010 and 23,100 in 2019. New infections decreased significantly among White MSM but did not decrease among Black or African American (Black) MSM and Hispanic/Latino MSM. New infections increased among MSM aged 25-34 years. During 2019, approximately 83% of Black MSM and 80% of Hispanic/Latino MSM compared with 90% of White MSM with HIV had received an HIV diagnosis. The lowest percentage of diagnosed infection was among MSM aged 13-24 years (55%). Among MSM with a likely PrEP indication, discussions about PrEP with a provider and PrEP use were lower among Black MSM (47% and 27%, respectively) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (45% and 31%) than among White MSM (59% and 42%). Among MSM with an HIV diagnosis, adherence to ART and viral suppression were lower among Black MSM (48% and 62%, respectively) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (59% and 67%) compared with White MSM (64% and 74%). Experiences of HIV-related stigma among those with an HIV diagnosis were higher among Black MSM (median = 33; scale = 0-100) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (32) compared with White MSM (26). MSM aged 18-24 years had the lowest adherence to ART (45%) and the highest median stigma score (39). CONCLUSION: Improving access to and use of HIV services for MSM, especially Black MSM, Hispanic/Latino MSM, and younger MSM, and addressing social determinants of health, such as HIV-related stigma, that contribute to unequal outcomes will be essential to end the HIV epidemic in the United States.

Estimated Annual Number of HIV Infections ─ United States, 1981-2019.

The first cases of Pneumocystis carinii (jirovecii) pneumonia among young men, which were subsequently linked to HIV infection, were reported in the MMWR on June 5, 1981 (1). At year-end 2019, an estimated 1.2 million persons in the United States were living with HIV infection (2). Using data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System, CDC estimated the annual number of new HIV infections (incidence) among persons aged ≥13 years in the United States during 1981-2019. Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 20,000 infections in 1981 to a peak of 130,400 infections in 1984 and 1985. Incidence was relatively stable during 1991-2007, with approximately 50,000-58,000 infections annually, and then decreased in recent years to 34,800 infections in 2019. The majority of infections continue to be attributable to male-to-male sexual contact (63% in 1981 and 66% in 2019). Over time, the proportion of HIV infections has increased among Black/African American (Black) persons (from 29% in 1981 to 41% in 2019) and among Hispanic/Latino persons (from 16% in 1981 to 29% in 2019). Despite the lack of a cure or a vaccine, today's HIV prevention tools, including HIV testing, prompt and sustained treatment, preexposure prophylaxis, and comprehensive syringe service programs, provide an opportunity to substantially decrease new HIV infections. Intensifying efforts to implement these strategies equitably could accelerate declines in HIV transmission, morbidity, and mortality and reduce disparities.

State-level prevalence estimates of latent tuberculosis infection in the United States by medical risk factors, demographic characteristics and nativity.

INTRODUCTION: Preventing tuberculosis (TB) disease requires treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) as well as prevention of person-to-person transmission. We estimated the LTBI prevalence for the entire United States and for each state by medical risk factors, age, and race/ethnicity, both in the total population and stratified by nativity. METHODS: We created a mathematical model using all incident TB disease cases during 2013-2017 reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System that were classified using genotype-based methods or imputation as not attributed to recent TB transmission. Using the annual average number of TB cases among US-born and non-US-born persons by medical risk factor, age group, and race/ethnicity, we applied population-specific reactivation rates (and corresponding 95% confidence intervals [CI]) to back-calculate the estimated prevalence of untreated LTBI in each population for the United States and for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2015. RESULTS: We estimated that 2.7% (CI: 2.6%-2.8%) of the U.S. population, or 8.6 (CI: 8.3-8.8) million people, were living with LTBI in 2015. Estimated LTBI prevalence among US-born persons was 1.0% (CI: 1.0%-1.1%) and among non-US-born persons was 13.9% (CI: 13.5%-14.3%). Among US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was in persons aged ≥65 years (2.1%) and in persons of non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (3.1%). Among non-US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was estimated in persons aged 45-64 years (16.3%) and persons of Asian and other racial/ethnic groups (19.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimations of the prevalence of LTBI by medical risk factors and demographic characteristics for each state could facilitate planning for testing and treatment interventions to eliminate TB in the United States. Our back-calculation method feasibly estimates untreated LTBI prevalence and can be updated using future TB disease case counts at the state or national level.

Differential Association of HIV Funding With HIV Mortality by Race/Ethnicity, United States, 1999-2017.

OBJECTIVE: Federal funds have been spent to reduce the disproportionate effects of HIV/AIDS on racial/ethnic minority groups in the United States. We investigated the association between federal domestic HIV funding and age-adjusted HIV death rates by race/ethnicity in the United States during 1999-2017. METHODS: We analyzed HIV funding data from the Kaiser Family Foundation by federal fiscal year (FFY) and US age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) by race/ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native [API+AI/AN]) from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER detailed mortality files. We fit joinpoint regression models to estimate the annual percentage change (APC), average APC, and changes in AADRs per billion US dollars in HIV funding, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For 19 data points, the number of joinpoints ranged from 0 to 4 on the basis of rules set by the program or by the user. A Monte Carlo permutation test indicated significant (P < .05) changes at joinpoints, and 2-sided t tests indicated significant APCs in AADRs. RESULTS: Domestic HIV funding increased from $10.7 billion in FFY 1999 to $26.3 billion in FFY 2017, but AADRs decreased at different rates for each racial/ethnic group. The average rate of change in AADR per US billion dollars was -9.4% (95% CI, -10.9% to -7.8%) for Hispanic residents, -7.8% (95% CI, -9.0% to -6.6%) for non-Hispanic black residents, -6.7% (95% CI, -9.3% to -4.0%) for non-Hispanic white residents, and -5.2% (95% CI, -7.8% to -2.5%) for non-Hispanic API+AI/AN residents. CONCLUSIONS: Increased domestic HIV funding was associated with faster decreases in age-adjusted HIV death rates for Hispanic and non-Hispanic black residents than for residents in other racial/ethnic groups. Increasing US HIV funding could be associated with decreasing future racial/ethnic disparities in the rate of HIV-related deaths.

Estimating the costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men, United States.

INTRODUCTION: HIV testing is an essential prerequisite for accessing treatment with antiretroviral therapy or prevention using pre-exposure prophylaxis. Internet distribution of HIV self-tests is a novel approach, and data on the programmatic cost of this approach are limited. We analyse the costs and cost-effectiveness of a self-testing programme. METHODS: Men who have sex with men (MSM) reporting unknown or negative HIV status were enrolled from March to August 2015 into a 12-month trial of HIV self-testing in the United States. Participants were randomly assigned either to the self-testing arm or the control arm. All participants received information on HIV testing services and locations in their community. Self-testing participants received up to four self-tests each quarter, which they could use themselves or distribute to their social network associates. Quarterly follow-up surveys collected testing outcomes, including number of tests used and new HIV diagnoses. Using trial expenditure data, we estimated the cost of implementing a self-testing programme. Primary outcomes of this analysis included total programme implementation costs, cost per self-test completed, cost per person tested, cost per new HIV diagnosis among those self-tested and cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) saved. RESULTS: A total of 2665 men were assigned either to the self-testing arm (n = 1325) or the control arm (n = 1340). HIV testing was reported by 971 self-testing participants who completed a total of 5368 tests. In the control arm, 619 participants completed 1463 HIV tests. The self-testing participants additionally distributed 2864 self-tests to 2152 social network associates. Testing during the trial identified 59 participants and social network associates with newly diagnosed HIV infection in the self-testing arm; 11 control participants were newly diagnosed with HIV. The implementation cost of the HIV self-testing programme was $449,510. The cost per self-test completed, cost per person tested at least once, and incremental cost per new HIV diagnosis was $61, $145 and $9365 respectively. We estimated that self-testing programme potentially averted 3.34 transmissions, saved 14.86 QALYs and nearly $1.6 million lifetime HIV treatment costs. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV self-testing programme identified persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection at low cost, and the programme is cost saving.

Effect of Internet-Distributed HIV Self-tests on HIV Diagnosis and Behavioral Outcomes in Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Undiagnosed HIV infection results in delayed access to treatment and increased transmission. Self-tests for HIV may increase awareness of infection among men who have sex with men (MSM). Objective: To evaluate the effect of providing HIV self-tests on frequency of testing, diagnoses of HIV infection, and sexual risk behaviors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This 12-month longitudinal, 2-group randomized clinical trial recruited MSM through online banner advertisements from March through August 2015. Those recruited were at least 18 years of age, reported engaging in anal sex with men in the past year, never tested positive for HIV, and were US residents with mailing addresses. Participants completed quarterly online surveys. Telephone call notes and laboratory test results were included in the analysis, which was completed from August 2017 through December 2018. Interventions: All participants had access to online web-based HIV testing resources and telephone counseling on request. Participants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to the control group or a self-testing (ST) group, which received 4 HIV self-tests after completing the baseline survey with the option to replenish self-tests after completing quarterly surveys. At study completion, all participants were offered 2 self-tests and 1 dried blood spot collection kit. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were HIV testing frequency (tested ≥3 times during the trial) and number of newly identified HIV infections among participants in both groups and social network members who used the study HIV self-tests. Secondary outcomes included sex behaviors (eg, anal sex, serosorting). Results: Of 2665 participants, the mean (SD) age was 30 (9.6) years, 1540 (57.8%) were white, and 443 (16.6%) had never tested for HIV before enrollment. Retention rates at each time point were more than 54%, and 1991 (74.7%) participants initiated 1 or more follow-up surveys. More ST participants reported testing 3 or more times during the trial than control participants (777 of 1014 [76.6%] vs 215 of 977 [22.0%]; P < .01). The cumulative number of newly identified infections during the trial was twice as high in the ST participants as the control participants (25 of 1325 [1.9%] vs 11 of 1340 [0.8%]; P = .02), with the largest difference in HIV infections identified in the first 3 months (12 of 1325 [0.9%] vs 2 of 1340 [0.1%]; P < .01). The ST participants reported 34 newly identified infections among social network members who used the self-tests. Conclusions and Relevance: Distribution of HIV self-tests provides a worthwhile mechanism to increase awareness of HIV infection and prevent transmission among MSM. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02067039.

Latent tuberculosis infection: the final frontier of tuberculosis elimination in the USA.

Since 1989, the USA has been pursuing the goal of tuberculosis elimination. After substantial progress during the past two decades, the rate of tuberculosis cases in the USA each year has now levelled off and remains well above the elimination threshold. Both epidemiological data and modelling underline the necessity of addressing latent tuberculosis infection if further progress is to be made in eliminating the disease. In this Personal View we explore next steps towards elimination. Given the estimated prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection, compared with the limited testing and treatment that currently occur, a major new effort is required. This effort should consist of a surveillance system or registry to monitor progress, scale-up of targeted testing for latent tuberculosis infection in at-risk populations, scale-up of short-course treatment regimens, engagement of affected communities and medical providers who serve those communities, and increased public health staffing for implementation and oversight. Such an effort would benefit greatly from the development of new tools, such as tests that better indicate reactivation risk, and even shorter latent tuberculosis infection treatment regimens than currently exist.

County-Level Vulnerability Assessment for Rapid Dissemination of HIV or HCV Infections Among Persons Who Inject Drugs, United States.

OBJECTIVE: A recent HIV outbreak in a rural network of persons who inject drugs (PWID) underscored the intersection of the expanding epidemics of opioid abuse, unsterile injection drug use (IDU), and associated increases in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. We sought to identify US communities potentially vulnerable to rapid spread of HIV, if introduced, and new or continuing high rates of HCV infections among PWID. DESIGN: We conducted a multistep analysis to identify indicator variables highly associated with IDU. We then used these indicator values to calculate vulnerability scores for each county to identify which were most vulnerable. METHODS: We used confirmed cases of acute HCV infection reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, 2012-2013, as a proxy outcome for IDU, and 15 county-level indicators available nationally in Poisson regression models to identify indicators associated with higher county acute HCV infection rates. Using these indicators, we calculated composite index scores to rank each county's vulnerability. RESULTS: A parsimonious set of 6 indicators were associated with acute HCV infection rates (proxy for IDU): drug-overdose deaths, prescription opioid sales, per capita income, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, unemployment, and buprenorphine prescribing potential by waiver. Based on these indicators, we identified 220 counties in 26 states within the 95th percentile of most vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights US counties potentially vulnerable to HIV and HCV infections among PWID in the context of the national opioid epidemic. State and local health departments will need to further explore vulnerability and target interventions to prevent transmission.

Cost-Effectiveness of Frequent HIV Testing of High-Risk Populations in the United States.

PURPOSE: Data showing a high incidence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) who had annual testing suggest that more frequent HIV testing may be warranted. Testing technology is also a consideration given the availability of sensitive testing modalities and the increased use of less-sensitive rapid, point-of-care antibody tests. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of HIV testing of MSM and injection drug users (IDUs) at 3- and 6-month intervals using fourth-generation and rapid tests. METHODS: We used a published mathematical model of HIV transmission to evaluate testing intervals for each population using cohorts of 10,000 MSM and IDU. We incorporated HIV transmissions averted due to serostatus awareness and viral suppression. We included costs for HIV testing and treatment initiation, and also treatment costs saved from averted transmissions. RESULTS: For MSM, HIV testing was cost saving or cost effective over a 1-year period for both 6-month compared with annual testing and quarterly compared with 6-month testing using either test. Testing IDU every 6 months compared with annually was moderately cost effective over a 1-year period with a fourth-generation test, while testing with rapid, point-of-care tests or quarterly was not cost effective. MSM results remained robust in sensitivity analysis, whereas IDU results were sensitive to changes in HIV incidence and continuum-of-care parameters. Threshold analyses on costs suggested that additional implementation costs could be incurred for more frequent testing for MSM while remaining cost effective. CONCLUSIONS: HIV testing of MSM as frequently as quarterly is cost effective compared with annual testing, but testing IDU more frequently than annually is generally not cost effective.

Human immunodeficiency virus transmission at each step of the care continuum in the United States.

IMPORTANCE: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission risk is primarily dependent on behavior (sexual and injection drug use) and HIV viral load. National goals emphasize maximizing coverage along the HIV care continuum, but the effect on HIV prevention is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to persons at each of the following 5 HIV care continuum steps: HIV infected but undiagnosed, HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care, retained in care but not prescribed antiretroviral therapy, prescribed antiretroviral therapy but not virally suppressed, and virally suppressed. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A multistep, static, deterministic model that combined population denominator data from the National HIV Surveillance System with detailed clinical and behavioral data from the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System and the Medical Monitoring Project to estimate the rate and number of transmissions along the care continuum. This analysis was conducted January 2013 to June 2014. The findings reflect the HIV-infected population in the United States in 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated rate and number of HIV transmissions. RESULTS: Of the estimated 1,148,200 persons living with HIV in 2009, there were 207,600 (18.1%) who were undiagnosed, 519,414 (45.2%) were aware of their infection but not retained in care, 47,453 (4.1%) were retained in care but not prescribed ART, 82,809 (7.2%) were prescribed ART but not virally suppressed, and 290,924 (25.3%) were virally suppressed. Persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (18.1% of the total HIV-infected population) and persons who are HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care (45.2% of the population) were responsible for 91.5% (30.2% and 61.3%, respectively) of the estimated 45,000 HIV transmissions in 2009. Compared with persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (6.6 transmissions per 100 person-years), persons who were HIV diagnosed and not retained in medical care were 19.0% (5.3 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV, and persons who were virally suppressed were 94.0% (0.4 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV. Men, those who acquired HIV via male-to-male sexual contact, and persons 35 to 44 years old were responsible for the most HIV transmissions by sex, HIV acquisition risk category, and age group, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Sequential steps along the HIV care continuum were associated with reduced HIV transmission rates. Improvements in HIV diagnosis and retention in care, as well as reductions in sexual and drug use risk behavior, primarily for persons undiagnosed and not receiving antiretroviral therapy, would have a substantial effect on HIV transmission in the United States.

Prevalence and public health implications of state laws that criminalize potential HIV exposure in the United States.

For the past three decades, legislative approaches to prevent HIV transmission have been used at the national, state, and local levels. One punitive legislative approach has been enactment of laws that criminalize behaviors associated with HIV exposure (HIV-specific criminal laws). In the USA, HIV-specific criminal laws have largely been shaped by state laws. These laws impose criminal penalties on persons who know they have HIV and subsequently engage in certain behaviors, most commonly sexual activity without prior disclosure of HIV-positive serostatus. These laws have been subject to intense public debate. Using public health law research methods, data from the legal database WestlawNext© were analyzed to describe the prevalence and characteristics of laws that criminalize potential HIV exposure in the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) and to examine the implications of these laws for public health practice. The first state laws were enacted in 1986; as of 2011 a total of 67 laws had been enacted in 33 states. By 1995, nearly two-thirds of all laws had been enacted; by 2000, 85 % of laws had been enacted; and since 2000, an additional 10 laws have been enacted. Twenty-four states require persons who are aware that they have HIV to disclose their status to sexual partners and 14 states require disclosure to needle-sharing partners. Twenty-five states criminalize one or more behaviors that pose a low or negligible risk for HIV transmission. Nearly two-thirds of states in the USA have legislation that criminalizes potential HIV exposure. Many of these laws criminalize behaviors that pose low or negligible risk for HIV transmission. The majority of laws were passed before studies showed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces HIV transmission risk and most laws do not account for HIV prevention measures that reduce transmission risk, such as condom use, ART, or pre-exposure prophylaxis. States with HIV-specific criminal laws are encouraged to use the findings of this paper to re-examine those laws, assess the laws' alignment with current evidence regarding HIV transmission risk, and consider whether the laws are the best vehicle to achieve their intended purposes.

The impact of post-election violence on HIV and other clinical services and on mental health-Kenya, 2008.

INTRODUCTION: In December 2007, civil disruption and violence erupted in Kenya following national elections, displacing 350,000 people and affecting supply chains and services. The Kenyan government and partners were interested in assessing the extent of disruption in essential health services, especially HIV treatment. METHODS: A two-stage cluster sampling for patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) was implemented ten weeks after elections, March 10-21, 2008, at twelve health facilities providing ART randomly selected in each of the three provinces most affected by post-election disruption-Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Central Provinces. Convenience samples of patients with tuberculosis, hypertension, or diabetes were also interviewed from the same facilities. Finally, a convenience sampling of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the three provinces was conducted. RESULTS: Three hundred thirty-six IDPs in nine camps and 1,294 patients in 35 health facilities were interviewed. Overall, nine percent of patients reported having not returned to their routine health care facility; 9%-25% (overall 16%) reported a temporary inability for themselves or their children to access care at some point during January-February 2008. Less than 15% of patients on long-term therapies for HIV, tuberculosis, diabetes, or hypertension had treatment interruptions compared with 2007. The proportion of tuberculosis patients receiving a ≥45-day supply of medication increased from five percent in November 2007 to 69% in December 2007. HIV testing decreased in January 2008 compared with November 2007 among women in labor wards and among persons tested through voluntary counseling and testing services in Nyanza and Rift Valley Provinces. Patients and their family members witnessed violence, especially in Nyanza and Rift Valley Provinces (54%-59%), but few patients (2.5%-14%, 10% overall) personally experienced violence. More IDPs reported witnessing (80%) or personally experiencing (38%) violence than did patients. About half of patients and three-quarters of IDPs interviewed had anxiety or depression symptoms during the four weeks before the assessment. There was no association among patients between the presence of HIV, tuberculosis, diabetes, and hypertension and the prevalence of anxiety or depression symptoms. CONCLUSION: More than 85% of patients in highly affected provinces avoided treatment interruptions; this may be in part related to practitioners anticipating potential disruption and providing patients with medications for an extended period. During periods of similar crisis, anticipating potential limitations on medication access and increased mental health needs could potentially prevent negative health impacts.

A mathematical model of comprehensive test-and-treat services and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection and suppression of viral load are potentially powerful interventions for reducing HIV incidence. A test-and-treat strategy may have long-term effects on the epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and may achieve the 5-year goals of the 2010 National AIDS Strategy that include: 1) lowering to 25% the annual number of new infections, 2) reducing by 30% the HIV transmission rate, 3) increasing to 90% the proportion of persons living with HIV infection who know their HIV status, 4) increasing to 85% the proportion of newly diagnosed patients linked to clinical care, and 5) increasing by 20% the proportion of HIV-infected MSM with an undetectable HIV RNA viral load. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed a dynamic compartmental model among MSM in an urban population (based on New York City) that projects new HIV infections over time. We compared the cumulative number of HIV infections in 20 years, assuming current annual testing rate and treatment practices, with new infections after improvements in the annual HIV testing rate, notification of test results, linkage to care, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression. We also assessed whether five of the national HIV prevention goals could be met by the year 2015. Over a 20-year period, improvements in test-and-treat practice decreased the cumulative number of new infections by a predicted 39.3% to 69.1% in the urban population based on New York City. Institution of intermediate improvements in services would be predicted to meet at least four of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy by the 2015 target. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the five components of a test-and-treat strategy could substantially reduce HIV incidence among urban MSM, and meet most of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.